This just in from Xinhuanet.com:
The fact that he has to deny at all that the Syrian army is on the brink of collapse, the sudden interest in the international community in a ceasefire in Syria, the new Chinese proposal and the US shift away from the Syrian National Council are all testaments to the changing facts on the ground in Syria.Russia denies Syrian army on brink of collapse
English.news.cn 2012-11-01 21:08:49
MOSCOW, Nov. 1 (Xinhua) -- Claims Syrian government forces had disintegrated were exaggerated, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said Thursday.
Some experts had said Syrian government troops could not confront the rebels, but the current situation proved they were wrong, Serdyukov told reporters after returning from Paris, where he participated in the Russia-France Security Cooperation Council with Russian and French foreign ministers and his French counterpart, Laurent Fabius.
The French side agreed with Russia there was no military solution to the crisis in Syria, he said.
"(Syrian president) Bashar al-Assad won't step down voluntarily, as this is equal to suicide. He will fight till the end," Serdyukov said. More...
Hidden within the endless diplomatic wrangling and seeming stalemate on the ground, two facts remain: Assad keeps on killing and the Free Syrian Army keeps on winning.Geopolitics says the int'l community wants Assad to remain in power. Humanity says Assad must go. #Syria further disintegrates every day.
— Rafif Jouejati (@RafifJ) November 1, 2012
Assad has been banking on a strategy of collective punishment to defeat his opposition. Like the bad guy in the movie that says "If you resist, we will kill you and the man standing next to you," he is betting that a policy of wanton slaughter in opposition communities will force those demanding that he be tried for war crimes give up.
And since his ground troops have proven unreliable, they tend to defect, he has opted to carry out this policy of mass slaughter mostly with the modern long range weapons of mass slaughter, bombs, missiles and artillery shells directed at civilians targets like people waiting in line for bread.
He is having it his way, killing hundreds of Syrians everyday, and nobody in this "international community" is making him stop, not even keeping his jets from dropping cluster bombs on civilian neighborhoods. For a government to do this to its own people is no longer unprecedented.
But he is not winning it his way. It's been months now and he hasn't been able to dislodge the Free Syrian Army from Aleppo. In fact, they have been gaining ground, and now they have managed to cut a major supply route to Assad's forces in Aleppo.
And this focus on retaking Aleppo has also caused him to lose ground almost everywhere else in the country.
While Assad would have us believe that a handful of foreign jhadists are responsible for all his troubles, he has increasingly had to rely on shooters from the Iranian Guard and Hezbollah to do his killing because if he doesn't keep many of his own soldiers on a very short leash, they tend to defect. And since a defecting Syrian soldier doesn't have the easy option of going to Canada and starting a new life, more often than not, the Syrian Army's loss is the Free Syrian Army's gain.
This sort of thing has a way of reaching a tipping point. The Russian Defense Minister is assuring us that we are not there yet while UN envoy Brahimi has begun a hurried campaign to get a ceasefire in place before that tipping point is reached.
That is because the Free Syrian Army is on the verge of winning what the Syrian people are demanding, an end to the rule of Bashar al-Assad and his whole regime.
Wrap up the lot!
Whereas, this "international community" rather likes Assad. He is someone they can work with. He's one of them. They would rather not see the murderous bastard go. If he has to go, so be it, but they certainly don't want the machinery of state power tinkered with too much.
They may play the "opposing" roles of "bad cop" and "good cop" when it comes to Syria but there really isn't that much difference between the Chinese position that, as stated by Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi,
To ensure a safe, stable and calm transition, the continuity and effectiveness of Syria's governmental institutions must be maintained.and the US position as stated by US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta that,
when Assad leaves, and he will leave, to try to preserve stability in that country. The best way to preserve that kind of stability is to maintain as much of the military and police as you can, along with security forces...They have had differences in the past about the future of Bashar al-Assad, they may still have, but they are in agreement about the need to preserve his oppressive and murderous state machinery.
That puts them on the same side in this conflict and that side is opposed to the Syrian people's struggle to rid themselves of both Bashar al-Assad and his whole murderous regime.
Here are my related diaries on Syria:
BREAKING in Syria: Explosion rocks #Damascus as people use "Truce Day" to protest regime
We condemn Israel. So why the silence on Syria?
Norodom Sihanouk at his finest & more on Syria
Meet a Syrian who doesn't think both sides are equally bad and is betting her life on it!
Two statements about Syria
Syria Today: New videos from the revolutionary war
Syrian Defector: Assad behind "terrorist" bombs
How Assad fights "terrorism" in Syria
REVISITED: FSA says it killed Russian General in Syria
Turkey attacks Syria
Truth Out: How Assad helped France kill Qaddafi
Panetta: Unilateral U.S. Military Intervention in Syria Would Be a Serious Mistake
BREAKING: 305 Syrians slaughtered in bloodiest day yet
Syria: Secret source of rebel arms revealed
BREAKING: Amnesty on Syria - Assad Regime guilty on indiscriminate slaughter
Syrian Revolution Digest shows "disgusting" photos!
Syria: The Killing Field the World is Learning to Live With
Barack Obama's Courtship of Bashar al-Assad
LIVE VIDEO: “World Silence is Killing #Syria” Rally in #DC
Free #Syria responds to Robert Fisk
UPDATED: #Assad: "#Syria doesn't need a green light!"
#Obama opposes French support for #Assad's opposition in #Syria
BREAKING: Amnesty site hacked, Assad propaganda posted
BREAKING: 630 Slaughtered in new massacre in Syria
Special message from Syrian children to Obama
Assad's Redline and Obama's Greenlight!
General Meade at Gettysburg
Tell US gov't to stop endangering Syrian activists
UPDATED: #Obama "green lights" #Assad's slaughter in #Syria
Syria: Turning Battlegrounds into Playgrounds
BREAKING: Bashar al-Assad is alive as deaths in Syria reach 25,000
The Left and the Arab Spring
Iran increasing its intervention in Syria
Syria: Images from the Battle of Aleppo
Fears grow of WMD attack in Syria
UPDATED: FSA says it killed Russian General in Syria
BREAKING: Syria releases new images of Bashar al- Assad | Are they fakes?
NOT BREAKING NEWS: Just another massacre in Syria
UPDATED: Syrian prime minister defects
Syria: FSA says Iranian pilgrims really Republican Guard
Syria: Aleppo under Siege!
BREAKING: UN votes to condemn Assad Regime as Reuters posts false story on Syria
BREAKING: Kofi Annan resigns as envoy to Syria
Syria: Bashar al-Assad not heard from on Armed Forces Day!
BREAKING: Senior Syrian diplomat to Armenia defects
BREAKING: Big Explosion hits #Damascus #Syria
UPDATED: Syria's Charge D'Affaires Quits London Post
BREAKING: Ground assault on Aleppo begins!
BREAKING: Protests across Syria in spite of Assad regime violence
ALEPPO: Step outside the Matrix and witness the Horror
UPDATED: US fears massacre in #Aleppo, #Syria
BREAKING: Reports of clashes between Jordan Army & Assad's Syrian army
BRAKING: Obama stops Putin from re-arming Assad in Syria
Syria: Foreign meddling increases as crisis builds
BREAKING: Aleppo, Syria bombed with fighter jets
BREAKING: Syria issues a correction, it has no WMD to use
BREAKING: Arab League asks Assad to step down!
Bashar al-Assad: New images released as slaughter continues in Syria
no blood for oil
BREAKING: Activists report toxic gas attack in Deir ez-Zor, Syria
Glenn Greenwald sees Islamist Terrorism as main issue in Syria
Will Syria's Assad make a chemical attack in Damascus on Saturday?
BREAKING: I know where Syria's President Bashar al-Assad is!
BREAKING: Massive Fire near #Assad's Presidential Palace in #Damascus, #Syria
BREAKING: Is Syria's Bashar al-Assad dead or dying?
BREAKING: Damascus explosion kills Defense Minister, other key figures
The battle for Damascus is coming
BREAKING: General Strike in Damascus
BREAKING: Intense fighting reported in Damascus now!
BREAKING: Syrian defector spills beans as important new defection reported.
Does Syria's Assad have something on Kofi Annan?
Tremseh Massacre in Syria: What we know
BREAKING: ~227 reported massacred by Assad's forces in Tremseh, Syria today!
Syria: Is Assad regime on the verge of collapse?
BREAKING: Russian Warships reported in Syria
BREAKING: #Russia changing on #Assad but not as fast as conditions in #Syria
UN Observers say violence in Syria is ‘Unprecedented’
BREAKING: Defection of major Assad insider reported in Syria
BREAKING: WikiLeaks releases 2.4 million #Syria emails
When did "Never Again" become "Whenever?" | #Douma
BREAKING: Incredible mass rally in Aleppo, Syria today!
BREAKING: HRW releases torture report on Syria
BREAKING: Syrian General defects with 293 to Turkey
BREAKING: Items not in the MSM on Syria
My response to Phyllis Bennis: Where is the non-violent opposition in Syria?
BREAKING: Syrian Air Force attacks Douma, 10m from Damascus, thousands flee
BREAKING: As Syria Burns, UN Blows More Smoke
BREAKING: Kofi Annan to propose Syrian unity gov't sans Assad!
BREAKING: Douma, Syria under massive attack, another massacre feared
BREAKING: Another mass defection from Syrian army
BREAKING: #NATO says No War in #Syria shoot down of #Turkey jet
NATO meetup tomorrow as more defect from Syria
BREAKING: Turkey calls for NATO consult on downing of jet by Syria
BREAKING: Senior Syrian Officers Defect
UPDATED: Russia reported to be preparing to evacuate from Syria
BREAKING: Syria fighter pilot defects
BREAKING: Britain stops Russian ship carrying attack helicopters for Syria
BREAKING: Russian troops headed to Syria
Qaddafi forces Strike Back in Libya
BREAKING: UN suspends mission in Syria
Libya & Syria - two videos - no comment
BREAKING: Russia denies supplying Syria with NEW attack helicopters
Syrian people rise up against the massacre
Another "Houla style" massacre in Syria
Fake Houla Massacre Photo: Was the BBC set up?
Idlib, Syria protest today on anniversary of Kent State killings
BREAKING: Massive protests in Syria following Friday pray
Syria is bleeding
Syria: Ceasefire faltering as mass protests breakout
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