Last Friday I posted a blog that suggested there was more than a casual connection between the failure of Elon Musk's Putin-friendly "Ukraine-Russia Peace" deal poll on Twitter, and the Starlink Internet failures Ukrainians were reporting in precisely the areas where they were making the most progress against Russia. I ended that post by promising more, later... I can now report more:
- Elon Musk spoke to Putin about Ukraine before he posted his Putin-friendly poll to Twitter. [Link] He later denied this. [Link] but source reconfirms. [Link]
- Musk blocked Ukraine from using Starlink in Crimea because of Putin's nuclear threats. [Link]
- Outages occurred last week in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk, all heavily contested. [Link]
- As of today, SpaceX's Starlink is back up in Ukraine, possibly because of the outrage over the outages! Link]
Financial Times quotes former Ukrainian defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk about suspicions Musk was blocking Ukrainian Internet at a critical time in their liberation struggle:
“If he did, this was unacceptable as it means he has taken a direct part in the war by damaging our capabilities. It’s not up to private individuals or companies to decide what is escalatory and intrude into equipment our allies provided us with."
On Friday, I posted this, which also made the point that the US government paid for the Ukrainian Starlink connection Musk has been taking credit for:
Here are some updates: Newsweek posted this the same day:My new Ukraine "Conspiracy Theory" concerns Elon Musk
... Elon Musk thinks he's so rich, he can buy Twitter for a snack—until he realized that he had swindled himself. He bid the share price at $54.20, haha. What was he smoking? Since then, lawyers have been paying to send their kids to law school with what he's been paying them to try to weasel out of the deal.
Is Elon Musk the new Henry Ford? He also must think that being the richest man on Earth, he must be the smartest man on Earth, because in addition to running Tesla and SpaceX, and looking for bots on Twitter, he obviously has time to become knowledgeable enough to mouth-off about Ukraine—on Twitter, naturally.
On Monday, he put forward his own proposal for a "Ukraine-Russia Peace" deal, in a poll, on Twitter, naturally.
These were the terms:
- Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.
So, redo the elections under conditions of Russian occupation, but with UN supervision. Good, I'm sure that will eliminate the intimidation factor. The people still left in the occupied regions (those that haven't fled) can feel secure in the knowledge that the Russian troops probably won't take revenge until the UN supervisors have left. And who will they be supervising? The same pro-Russian forces that conducted the last election? And exactly who will make the Russian leave, if they decide to renege, and Musk-up the deal?
- Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).
Khrushchev’s mistake! I'm glad Elon settled that one for us. Putin thinks that accepting that Ukraine was its own nation, with its own Soviet Socialist Republic, within the Union, with a Right of Self-Determination was Lenin's mistake—corrected by Stalin. I would like to know if Elon agrees with that.- Water supply to Crimea assured.
Of, course nothing about Ukraine's borders being secured, Ukraine's Black Sea access being assured, Ukraine's people being protected from a Russian leader bent on their complete destruction as an independent nation. I just learned, a few hours ago from Timothy Snyder, that Putin is even having the word "Ukraine" removed from Russian history books!
- Ukraine remains neutral.
Neutral with regards to a country that has just invaded and raped it. Neutral with regards to a country bent on its destruction. Very good. Notice that the only thing Putin has to do to hold up his end of Musk's "Piece Deal" is allow some UN Supervisors in for an afternoon.
He has over 100 million followers on Twitter, but only 2,748,378 people voted in Musk's very pro-Putin poll, and almost 60% gave it the thumbs👎down!
Elon Musk fumed. He blamed it on the bots.On Wednesday, after months of fighting it, Elon Musk says he is ready to buy Twitter again, at original $44 billion price. What made him change his mind? Did he suddenly feel the need to have more control over the platform?And today, on Friday, we have this most troubling BREAKING NEWS from Yahoo News and others:Frontline Ukraine troops are reportedly enduring Starlink outagesKris Holt·Contributing ReporterFri, 7 October 2022 at 10:39 amUkrainian forces have reportedly been dealing with Starlink outages as they try to take back Russian-occupied areas. Some of the outages, which are said to have caused a severe loss of communication over the last several weeks, occurred as troops broke through the frontline into territory controlled by Russia as well as during battles, a Ukraine government official told The Financial Times. More...As the article says, Starlink is run by SpaceX, which is owned by Elon Musk. Musk got a pro-Ukrainian reputation, and a lot of good press, by floating the idea that Starlink was his $80 million gift to Ukraine, but this week it also came out that the whole thing was bankrolled by the US government. Elon Musk didn't become the richest man on Earth by giving stuff away. This might be another reason to be ticked-off about the whole Ukraine thing right now.
He may not be losing money on it, but his company still runs it, and now we know he's not quite as pro-Ukrainian as we may have been led to believe. There's an old cop saying: Never believe in coincidences. So, the question has to be asked: Is there a connection between Elon Musk's pro-Putin views and Starlink's outages in the combat zone?
Unlike the attacks on the already shutdown Nord Streams 1 & 2, these communication outages in the areas where Ukraine is rapidly liberating its territory, are probably costing lives right now.
Anyway, that's my conspiracy theory, and I think it bears more investigation, because it may turnout to be more than just a theory.
More, later....
On Tuesday, Charles R. Davis, posting on Business Insider, confirmed the main element of my "Conspiracy Theory," .i.e., that Elon Musk personally was responsible for SpaceX's Putin-friendly Internet outages in Ukraine:Elon Musk Needs to Clarify Ukraine's Reported Starlink Outages: Kinzinger
By Kaitlin LewisIllinois Republican Representative Adam Kinzinger called on Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk to release a statement Friday after a report that Ukrainian soldiers were having connectivity trouble with Starlink communication devices on the front lines.
Financial Times reported Friday that a Ukrainian government official said that recent outages from the Starlink internet systems had caused "catastrophic" loss of communication for troops on the front lines in Ukraine's war with Russia, resulting in "panicked calls" from some soldiers to helpline numbers.
Ukrainian officials said connectivity issues started when Ukrainian soldiers liberated territory that was once Russian-controlled and moved past the front lines, according to the report. More...
According to Business Insider on Tuesday:Elon Musk blocked Ukraine from using Starlink in Crimea over concern that Putin could use nuclear weapons, political analyst says
Elon Musk personally rejected a Ukrainian request to extend his satellite internet service to Crimea, fearing that an effort to retake the peninsula from Russian forces could lead to a nuclear war, the influential political analyst Ian Bremmer said in a newsletter published on Monday.
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, Musk — and the US government — provided Kyiv with thousands of Starlink systems, enabling Ukrainian forces to communicate in what had previously been dead zones. The low energy requirements of the service's satellite receivers have enabled connection to reconnaissance drones, providing valuable real-time intelligence on Russian movements and the ability to target them, Yahoo News reported in August.
But recently there have been problems. Last week, a senior Ukrainian government official told the Financial Times reported that the service was suffering "catastrophic" outages on the front lines, prompting speculation that it had been shut off in areas controlled by Russia — perhaps to prevent the Kremlin from exploiting the network.On Twitter, Musk said he could not comment on battlefield conditions, saying, "That's classified." But Bremmer, the founder and president of the political-risk research firm Eurasia Group, said on Monday that in a conversation with Musk in late September, Musk appeared to confirm that the satellite service was being intentionally disabled. More...
Tesla CEO Elon Musk spoke with Vladimir Putin before pitching his Ukraine peace plan on Twitter that repeated Kremlin talking points, political scientist says
By Rebecca Cohen and John Haltiwanger
Before tweeting a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine that parroted Russian demands, Elon Musk reportedly spoke privately with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a leading political analyst.
Eurasia Group founder and president Ian Bremmer in a Monday email to his organization's subscribers said that he spoke with Musk two weeks ago. At the time, Musk told Bremmer that Putin explicitly told him that he was "prepared to negotiate" under the conditions that Crimea remains under Russian control, that Ukraine remained neutral, and that Russia's annexations of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia were enforced.
According to Bremmer, Putin told Musk that these were goals he'd accomplish "no matter what," or else he would turn to "major escalation."
Bremmer also said that Musk told him Putin said if Zelenskyy "invaded Crimea, Russia would retaliate with a nuclear strike on Ukraine," adding, "Elon said everything needed to be done to avoid that outcome." More...
Today, 13 October 2022, Datacenter Dynamics is reporting:
This is good news, but it still leaves a lot of questions: Did Elon Musk use his control of SpaceX to interfere with the Starlink Internet service the US government had paid for at a critical time and place in the Ukrainian national liberation struggle against Russia?SpaceX's Starlink is back up in Ukraine
By Peter JudgeSpaceX's satellite Internet services are coming back online in Ukraine, as areas of the country are retaken from Russian occupation, according to reports.
Ukrainian troops using portable Starlink satellite terminals are finding that service is improving after earlier outages in intensely-contested areas such as the southern city of Kherson, according to the<Financial Times, which earlier reported significant outages in these areas. More...
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