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Monday, July 20, 2020

Reelection in a Pandemic Should Be Easy

This is how insane Trump's coronavirus response is: We all know that the only thing he really cares about now is his reelection. The pandemic should enhance his reelection chances, provided he provides even just competent leadership during the crisis. But he has even managed to screw that up. Just imagine the hill Joe Biden would have to climb if Trump had done on the national level even half the job that Cuomo did at the state level, and we were on a trajectory only a few weeks behind Europe, with deaths below 65K, and increases down to dozens a day?

A crisis is generally good for the incumbents, provided they aren't blamed for it, and nobody in their right mind will blame the president for a novel virus. People tend to rally around their leaders during a crisis. Crises provide the leaders an opportunity to exercise their powers in a way that will be appreciated by all. It also gives them the opportunity for seizing center stage and showing their stuff, although that isn't always advised. As long as the firemen are sitting in the firehouse, no metals will be awarded. Hero are made after the alarm has been sounded, Imagine Churchill's legacy without WWII. Trump could be playing the hero now. Instead #Trumpdemic is trending.

Trump's warriors in Portland
Wars are very good for presidential reelection. No wartime president has been defeated for reelection. That's probably the reason some have been suspected of starting a war just to get reelected. In point of fact, that's what Trump appears to be doing now. He has already invaded Portland with his DHS goons in rented cars.  He's trying to start a cultural civil war in the United States because he thinks that will help him get reelected. What makes this so stupid is that his health experts have been telling him about the coming war that could seal his reelection prospects back in January and February. He doesn't have to blame China. Everybody knows it started in China. The important point is that, unlike a war, nobody would blame him. To have everyone cheering for him, all he had to do is step up to the plate and hit the ball after a few tries, and he couldn't even manage that.

The leadership part should have been easy for the president because the problem is largely a technical one, and the solution will be found with science. After Einstein told Roosevelt that the atomic bomb was possible, Roosevelt created the Manhattan Project. He gathered together the top scientists and engineers in the field, made sure they had what they needed, and let them have at it. After Jack Kennedy set the goal of putting a man on the moon before the next decade, he gathered together the top scientists and engineers in the field, made sure they had what they needed, and let them have at it. These are examples of presidential leadership to technological challenges that should have been easy for even Trump to follow. All he really needed to do was gather together the top scientists and healthcare experts, make sure they had everything they needed, let them have at it, and follow their guidance. Then he could have gone off and played golf, and nobody would have cared. There still would have been the economic issues on his plate, but those portions would be a lot smaller if the pandemic was under control. They could have been more easily handled, and besides, no one would blame him for that either, given the state of the economy going into the pandemic, provided he was providing even “just okay” leadership on both fronts. But he could even do that. Not to save a hundred thousand American lives. Not even to get reelected.

Clay Claiborne.

For the reason Trump won't put science in control please see this.


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